Thursday, February 26, 2015

President Jonathan and the Shift in Election 2015




In advanced Countries people predict some outcome based on the happenings around them and it happens but in Nigeria, its not always the same.  Most of what happens in Nigeria always defy predictions and analysis. Even some of our Ministers of the Gospel don't predict accurately what will happen the next day not to talk about the future. .

But this time around, many Nigerians including children predicted that the election dates would be shifted based on the happenings around the Country. The collection of the PVCs ( Permanent Voters Cards) was still going on 2 weeks to the election day. Even in most States, PVCs were not ready for collection.So we all knew the election would not hold in February and and gbaam, it happened. It fact there was this general belief that INEC and the Presidency will cancel the election all together.

Well there was this strong belief among the supporters of the opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari that victory was theirs in that Presidential election that was to take place on the 14th of February 2015. On the other hand, there was  panic among supporters of the president that the incumbent, President Jonathan may lose in the election and become the first President in Nigeria to lose re-election bid and be thrown out of office.

We have Governors that had lost re-election bid, Mbadinuji in Anambra, Ohakim in Imo, Abubakar in Kogi Ladoja and Alao-Akala  in OYO and recently Fayemi in Ekiti State. So if President Jonathan looses in the Presidential election, then he will be the first and so his aides and especially the National Security Adviser advised the President to shift the dates to give him time to meet with people that may influence the electorates.

Days before the decision was taken to shift the poll, the tension in the Country was palpable. I remember one of my staff telling me that he would move his family back home to Abia State because of the tension and crisis that the election is going to create. Among the supporters of both front-line parties, was fear, tension, distrust and anger. At any place they meet, death and injuries always ended the meeting.

 
Deputy Speaker, House of Representatives, Rep. Emeka  Ihedioha;  Senate President David Mark and  President Goodluck Jonathan; at the pre-centenary national praise and thanksgiving service in Abuja on Sunday
Deputy Speaker, House of Representatives, Rep. Emeka Ihedioha; Senate President David Mark and President Goodluck Jonathan
On the part of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, the shift is an opportunity to finalise their preparation, distribute a large percentage of the Permanent Voters Cards and train their ad hoc staff on the use of most of their gadgets.

The President may deny all he wants that he did not have prior knowledge on the shift of the election date but what we are observing now proves otherwise. Apart from All Progressive Congress, the Presidents' Party has not said anything. The President just finished campaigning in the States and is now meeting with groups and sharing money.

Yesterday there was a mild drama in the Federal House of Representative where a member of his party confronted the majority leader for sharing money to members that decamped to the opposition party and he was locked out of that meeting.

Is this sharing of money in dollars affecting the Economy? Of course it is. The Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria devalued Naira last year from N155 to  N168. That did not bring the rate down and did not stop the desire to buy forex by Nigerians so last week, he devalued again to N198. There is scarcity of dollars and the Foreign Reserves is depleted.Even the former President, Obasanjo told a gathering of women leaders who went to see him that the money he left have been squandered by this present administration

Anyway, this period, some of the projects nearing completion like the major express roads under construction in (Lagos, Edo kogi and Abuja),  rails and power plants will be rushed and probably commissioned to boost the Presidents' achievements and sell him to the electerates as the candidate to beat.

The bad part is that Fayose and Fani Kayode will continue to make the electorates  more sympathetic to Buhari because of their reckless talks and criticism.